美国汽车与汽车零部件:重启汽车之路

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美国汽车与汽车零部件:重启汽车之路

 

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 17 .

  R ocky

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 lea st

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 tow ar d easi ng

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 w i th s ta nding

 Fe de ral

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 pr odu c ti on

 as a

 c riti c al

 ac ti v ity ) ,

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 ar ou n d

 th e

 s ta tu s

 of

 M e xican

 pa r ts

 an d

 v e h i c le

 as s e mb ly plan ts ,

 th e

 pot e n tial

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 Th ree

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 th e

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 t r ac kin g

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 g i v e n

 th e

 s u pp ly

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 s oon

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 M e xic o

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 tr ac kin g

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 7 . 3mn

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 w e

 are

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 c om for ta b le

 w i th

 ou r

 pr i or 2 Q 20

 e s ti m ate

 for

 U S

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 ( 9 . 7

 mn

 SAAR) ,

 w h i c h

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 n ee d

 M ay

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 Ju n e

 to

 aver age 10 . 9mn

 un i ts .

  H ow e v er ,

 w e

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 mor e

 c au ti ou s

 on

 NA

 pr od u c ti on

 du e

 to

 r amp

 u p

 de lay s . W e

 n ow

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 2 Q

 NA

 p r odu c ti on

 dow n

 ~7 0 %

 (v s

 40 %

 pr i o r ) .

  FI GU R E

 1

 P ot en t ia l

 p a t h

 t o

 2Q 20 SA A R

 of 9.7mn

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 mn

 12.0 FI GU R E

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 r ev is ed

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 m n )

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 2020E

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 Pri o r

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 mn

 2.5 1.4 14.0

  12.2 y / y

 %

 - 41 %

 - 68 %

 - 14 %

 - 25 %

  Apr i l

 M ay

 J un e

  Sour c e:

 B a r c la y s

 Resea r c h

 esti m ates

 Sour c e:

 B a r c la y s

 Resea r c h

 esti m ates

 9.8 7.3

  M or e ove r ,

 w e

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 s u c h

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 early

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 4 .

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 key

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 ( M e xic o

 an d

 Ar li ngton

 TX )

 than

 c an

 For d.

 O v erall ,

 w e

 pr e f er

 s u pp lier s

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 are

 le ss

 e xpos e d

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 th e

 D etr oit

 3

 an d

 mor e

 e xpo s e d

 to Ch i n a

 ( w h i c h

 i s

 re b ou nding ) ,

 h e n c e

 APTV

 on

 th e

 lar g er - c ap

 s i de

 ( ~2 3 %

 D - 3

 e xpo s u re )

 an d Adi e n t

 on

 th e

 s m aller - c ap

 s i d e

 ( 27 %

 D - 3 ,

 bu t

 w i th

 a

 lar g e

 Ch i n a

 bu s i n e ss

 an d

 ...

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